Visible Alpha
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 33 brokers · 501 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-24.
PayPal's broker models put the debate on unit economics, not the top line: total payment volume and transaction revenue rise steadily, but a mix shift toward low-take-rate unbranded (Braintree) volume compresses the transaction margin every year, leaving transaction-margin dollars roughly flat. Coverage is deep on the consolidated lines and much thinner on the segment splits.
Transaction margin compresses every year even as volume and revenue climb
Volume and transaction revenue rise across the forecast, yet transaction-margin dollars barely move because the blended take rate keeps stepping down. This is the wedge the models are pricing.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume & revenue | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total payment volume (TPV)($B) | $1,787.78bn | $1,919.67bn | $2,034.10bn | $2,162.27bn | +7.4% | 32 |
| Transaction revenues | $29.92bn | $30.85bn | $32.08bn | $33.38bn | +3.1% | 31 |
| Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Transaction margin (Gross profit/loss) | $15.50bn | $15.33bn | $15.57bn | $15.77bn | -1.1% | 32 |
| Transaction margin(%) | 46.6% | 44.6% | 43.6% | 42.6% | -1.9pt | 33 |
| Transaction take rate as % of TPV(%) | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.1pt | 32 |
Braintree (unbranded) is the volume engine, outgrowing Branded checkout
Unbranded Braintree volume is modeled to outpace Branded checkout, and it earns a take rate roughly half as high — so its faster growth mechanically dilutes blended economics and drives the margin fade in the prior table. Forward-year segment splits rest on few brokers; read the counts.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPV - Branded($B) | $497.56bn | $528.84bn | $549.64bn | $616.34bn | +6.3% | 10 |
| TPV - Braintree (Unbranded)($B) | $604.65bn | $698.57bn | $790.34bn | $788.42bn | +15.5% | 9 |
| TPV - Venmo($B) | $321.26bn | $364.01bn | $396.91bn | $415.25bn | +13.3% | 15 |
| TPV - eBay($B) | $29.44bn | $30.44bn | $31.27bn | $36.36bn | +3.4% | 12 |
Brokers split hardest on cash generation and account growth, not on revenue
Consensus on TPV and transaction revenue is tight; the real spread sits in free cash flow and how many net-new accounts PayPal adds. The transaction-margin row shows the crux metric is contested only modestly.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | FY-2027E | $6.06bn | $5.62bn–$6.38bn | $3.90bn–$7.70bn | 24 |
| Net new active accounts in a year(M#) | FY-2027E | 4.00m Number | 3.04m Number–6.67m Number | 1.50m Number–12.26m Number | 17 |
| Transaction margin(%) | FY-2028E | 42.7% | 42.3%–43.2% | 40.5%–44.0% | 20 |
| TPV - Braintree (Unbranded)($B) | FY-2027E | $763.53bn | $739.01bn–$814.86bn | $733.02bn–$901.31bn | 4 |
Free cash flow funds roughly $6B of annual buybacks as spend-per-account rises
Steady free cash flow underwrites about $6B of repurchases a year, and revenue and volume per account keep climbing — the models lean on capital return and deeper monetization rather than margin expansion.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash return | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow | $5.62bn | $5.41bn | $6.04bn | $6.26bn | -3.8% | 25 |
| Payment for repurchases of equity | $5.97bn | $6.04bn | $5.68bn | $5.43bn | +1.3% | 23 |
| Dividend Per Share($) | $0.13 | $0.55 | $0.60 | $0.63 | +309.0% | 11 |
| Per account | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Revenue per customer account($) | $75.83 | $77.52 | $79.75 | $81.80 | +2.2% | 19 |
| TPV per customer account($) | $4,073 | $4,165 | $4,543 | $4,785 | +2.2% | 20 |
Segment splits rest on a handful of brokers
Consolidated lines (TPV, transaction revenue, transaction margin) carry 29–33 brokers, but the segment TPV and per-segment take-rate lines fall to as few as one broker in the out-years, so those splits are directional, not consensus. Revisions are current (mostly July 2026); the limitation is breadth, not vintage.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.